another aspect of complexity: the military situation is only part of the game. there are others. and people are motivated by complexes of things--the see their surroundings in mobile ways. even folk you wouldn't think it of:
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2155: UK Foreign Office statement on Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa: "We can confirm that Moussa Koussa arrived at Farnborough Airport from Tunisia. He travelled here under his own free will. He has told us that he is resigning his post. We are discussing this with him and we will release further detail in due course. Moussa Koussa is one of the most senior figures in Gaddafi's government and his role was to represent the regime internationally - something that he is no longer willing to do. We encourage those around Gaddafi to abandon him and embrace a better future for Libya that allows political transition and real reform that meets the aspirations of the Libyan people".
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which bbc's live blog guy goes on the interpret:
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2209: After a day of setbacks for the Libyan rebels, correspondents say the apparent defection of Libya's foreign minister will be a major blow to Col Gaddafi's regime. No reaction yet from Tripoli.
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BBC News - Live: Libya and Mid-East crisis
go figure.