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Martian · 03-29-2011, 03:03 PM

Nailed -- I'm as guilty of spitballing as the next guy.

The caveat is that there hasn't been any serious campaigning yet -- signs are just starting to go up now, and nobody's really gotten completely under way at this point. So, yeah. This could go in any direction.

However, I'm looking at polls and it would take a major swing to put a Liberal government in the House. Sure it's possible, but that's a huge shift of sentiment in a very short timeframe. That's why I think a Liberal minority is unlikely, though if I trade hyperbole for candor I have to admit that it can't be ruled out.

At the same time, a Conservative majority, based on current numbers, would take a fairly large swing as well. Not to the same degree, granted, but they're going to have to find a way to shift the momentum. Like you yourself said, I don't see a coalition as being a huge voter issue, especially now that Ignatieff has stated quite clearly that working with the Bloq is not in the cards. I'm just not seeing where they're going to get the kind of leverage they'll need. Harper's early overtures have been split between coalition fear mongering and talk of how the opposition forced an election nobody wants. The opposition, meanwhile, have made allegations that the Conservatives are the one who really forced this election, which as a point of debate does have some merit. I don't think either talking point will carry enough weight to shift voter sentiment.

I'm biased, but I think where the Libs really need to go if they want to get anywhere during this election is to the digital economy. They need to come out strong and hard in favour of fostering competition and dismantling the current duopoly in the telecom world. They need to come out against copyright reform that criminalizes fair use. In short, they need to distance themselves from the American-style digital policies. Given the recent furor over the UBB fiasco, if it's spun right this could easily turn into a major election issue. It's the kind of fulcrum they need to really move things in their direction in terms of sentiment, and while I can't rule it out, I just don't see any indications of things going that way.

So.

I reserve the right to be proven completely off-base about all of this, and to change my mind as things really start moving, but with the way things currently stand I don't think either major party has what it takes to cause a drastic shift. I'm anticipating that the NDP may pick up a few seats based on voters who are wary of both major parties, but apart from that I'm not sure that there's enough sentiment to effect any kind of broad change here.

Give it another week or two and we'll see how things look. It'll be easier to make predictions once we have a solid idea of how each party is going to run it's campaign.

03-29-2011, 03:03 PM	#13 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	Nailed -- I'm as guilty of spitballing as the next guy. The caveat is that there hasn't been any serious campaigning yet -- signs are just starting to go up now, and nobody's really gotten completely under way at this point. So, yeah. This could go in any direction. However, I'm looking at polls and it would take a major swing to put a Liberal government in the House. Sure it's possible, but that's a huge shift of sentiment in a very short timeframe. That's why I think a Liberal minority is unlikely, though if I trade hyperbole for candor I have to admit that it can't be ruled out. At the same time, a Conservative majority, based on current numbers, would take a fairly large swing as well. Not to the same degree, granted, but they're going to have to find a way to shift the momentum. Like you yourself said, I don't see a coalition as being a huge voter issue, especially now that Ignatieff has stated quite clearly that working with the Bloq is not in the cards. I'm just not seeing where they're going to get the kind of leverage they'll need. Harper's early overtures have been split between coalition fear mongering and talk of how the opposition forced an election nobody wants. The opposition, meanwhile, have made allegations that the Conservatives are the one who really forced this election, which as a point of debate does have some merit. I don't think either talking point will carry enough weight to shift voter sentiment. I'm biased, but I think where the Libs really need to go if they want to get anywhere during this election is to the digital economy. They need to come out strong and hard in favour of fostering competition and dismantling the current duopoly in the telecom world. They need to come out against copyright reform that criminalizes fair use. In short, they need to distance themselves from the American-style digital policies. Given the recent furor over the UBB fiasco, if it's spun right this could easily turn into a major election issue. It's the kind of fulcrum they need to really move things in their direction in terms of sentiment, and while I can't rule it out, I just don't see any indications of things going that way. So. I reserve the right to be proven completely off-base about all of this, and to change my mind as things really start moving, but with the way things currently stand I don't think either major party has what it takes to cause a drastic shift. I'm anticipating that the NDP may pick up a few seats based on voters who are wary of both major parties, but apart from that I'm not sure that there's enough sentiment to effect any kind of broad change here. Give it another week or two and we'll see how things look. It'll be easier to make predictions once we have a solid idea of how each party is going to run it's campaign. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame