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what's happening in the empirical world is that there are significant divisions within---for example---the uk that split the government and military around how to interpret resolution 1973 over the question of whether actually taking out gadhafi is authorized. the government argues that it is. the military says it is not.
the united states is looking to turn over the task of co-ordination to nato in the coming days. the idea is plain--the united states is not going to play a central role in running this show. nor are they going to play a leading role in executing it. but they'll help. this is a job for shiny weapons systems, apparently. the administration's been quite clear about this.
there are real questions about what's going to follow the implementation of the no-fly zone. the juan cole article i posted above references kosovo as a possible way of thinking about how political organization for the rebels might come out of the process of establishing the no-fly zone. the distinctions and linkages are made pretty clear in the article---assuming you actually read it.
on the ground in the empirical libya, its already quite clear that the idea that there is a rebel army capable of moving directly against gadhafi in the wake of some incineration campaign run from the air using shiny jets and cruise missles is a chimera.
so the main problem is not tribal. that's a subset (to the extent that gadhafi's core of supporters are from his tribal group and most of those who oppose him---seemingly---are not----but here again, it's really quite hard to know for sure as most---if not all---of this inference is based on a location of "the revolt" in benghazi. but reality is far more fractured and complex than that. most realities are complex).
from the point of view of the un-sanction intervention of the international community, the main problem is that there's really no organized army to take up the space that the no-fly zone is supposed to open up.
there are already multiple requests for more and better weapons. i expect that the arms bazaar will be more than happy to oblige.
but that won't change the problems in actually moving against gadhafi's forces.
and i don't know what---if any---plan there is to address this. but it's already a hole in the "we'll be home in a matter of a few days once we incinerate some of these people" claims.
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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear
it make you sick.
-kamau brathwaite
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