Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Revolution in Tunisia & Egypt, Protests in Libya, Bahrain, Oman & Yemen

Cimarron29414 · 02-08-2011, 06:57 AM

Let me preface this statement with the fact that I don't have a dog in this fight. I am really making an observation and looking to those who have more experience on the matter to provide some sort of context.

In 1989 (I think it was), 300,000 Estonians gathered in their capital and demanded an end to the communist rule that held them. While that number is not that impressive, it becomes striking when one realizes that represented 33% of their entire citizenry. It isn't hard to recognize that as a massive wave of change. When 1/3 of your population drops what they are doing, travels to the capital, and demands change - it's safe to say a majority of the population wants what they want (many can't travel).

3 million Egyptians have come together on several days and demanded political change, but that represents only 3% of their population. How closely do their voices resemble the 97% who did not assemble in protest?

The American administration has been off message from the start here, constantly sliding the goal line. That is surprising since, IMO, Egypt is our most critical ally in the region. One would think they would have prefabricated messages for these sorts of eventualities. To this point, the father of one of my best friends was a speech writer for President Kennedy. He was instructed to write two speeches for the Cuba missile crisis - the one that was read, and the one that wasn't read - the one that meant things didn't go well. The Kennedy administration had fabricated both outcomes in speeches and the entire administration was aware of "the message," regardless of the outcome. Incidentally, it was chilling to get to read the speech which was never read... So, this administration seemed unprepared for what appears to have been common knowledge - this rise of the Egyptian people against Mubarak.

Perhaps the administration would have acted differently if it had been 30 million people marching? Is it possible the administration reacted the way they did because the numbers weren't there? Does anyone have any insight into any of this?

02-08-2011, 06:57 AM	#151 (permalink)
Cimarron29414 Still Free Location: comfortably perched at the top of the bell curve!	Let me preface this statement with the fact that I don't have a dog in this fight. I am really making an observation and looking to those who have more experience on the matter to provide some sort of context. In 1989 (I think it was), 300,000 Estonians gathered in their capital and demanded an end to the communist rule that held them. While that number is not that impressive, it becomes striking when one realizes that represented 33% of their entire citizenry. It isn't hard to recognize that as a massive wave of change. When 1/3 of your population drops what they are doing, travels to the capital, and demands change - it's safe to say a majority of the population wants what they want (many can't travel). 3 million Egyptians have come together on several days and demanded political change, but that represents only 3% of their population. How closely do their voices resemble the 97% who did not assemble in protest? The American administration has been off message from the start here, constantly sliding the goal line. That is surprising since, IMO, Egypt is our most critical ally in the region. One would think they would have prefabricated messages for these sorts of eventualities. To this point, the father of one of my best friends was a speech writer for President Kennedy. He was instructed to write two speeches for the Cuba missile crisis - the one that was read, and the one that wasn't read - the one that meant things didn't go well. The Kennedy administration had fabricated both outcomes in speeches and the entire administration was aware of "the message," regardless of the outcome. Incidentally, it was chilling to get to read the speech which was never read... So, this administration seemed unprepared for what appears to have been common knowledge - this rise of the Egyptian people against Mubarak. Perhaps the administration would have acted differently if it had been 30 million people marching? Is it possible the administration reacted the way they did because the numbers weren't there? Does anyone have any insight into any of this? __________________ Gives a man a halo, does mead. "Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly." Last edited by Cimarron29414; 02-08-2011 at 07:27 AM..