i dont really know. it's possible. i still think that the united states and likely europe has placed it's marbles with the army. 1.5 billion a year gets you some leverage. if that theory is right (and it's just a theory based on my take on stuff that happened friday and nothings' occurred since that shakes it for me...but am open to other readings)..then i think **may** be possible for mubarak to wait it out, but there will come a point that the army will be put in a position of having to choose...that's when things will change.
on the other hand, there's a real question as to how serious a game the united states can really play with that 1.5 billion. state said on friday that the funding was "up for review based on the outcome of the coming days"..
because if american strategic interests (read israel first of all) are contingent on the army's support of those objectives, then taking away the annual pay-off for making nice with israel would be a disaster for the americans.
so it's an interesting game.
there are several options and no way that i can see to tell which is the more likely yet.
what do you think? how does this situation look to you?
in the washington post this morning, there are indications that the obama administration may be inching closer to saying that it favors mubarak's resignation
Obama administration aligns itself with protests in Egypt with call for 'orderly transition'
but it's hardly what the headlines claim it is, a "firm alignment with the protestors"...i don't think the united states really cares that much what is transitioned to so long as this revolutionary business goes away. because that's how we roll.