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Old 01-31-2011, 07:28 AM   #48 (permalink)
roachboy
 
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the pieces look like they may be in place for some kind of transitional phase, but obviously the situation is still open-ended.

suleiman could head a transitional govt. and mubarak stand down. but that's unlikely to work because he's too close to mubarak.

el barradei could be brought in to head a transitional govt. this seems to me from the outside to be the most sensible option. what i don't know (obviously) is the relation of the army to el barradei.

haaretz is reporting that mubarak has agreed to talk with opposition figures.
the army has also apparently pledged not to hurt anyone protesting tomorrow.

Mubarak to talk with opposition as 250,000 protesters gather in Cairo - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

the israelis are said to be quietly (that is off-camera) flipping their shit. good ole bibi, that hero of democracy, is urging the united states to back mubarak "for stability's sake"----which in the abstract is understandable, but is really very last monday.

the financial times is predicting a military dictatorship

FT.com / Global insight - Only certainty is army will play dominant role

at this point, though, i don't necessarily see that as inevitable.
i do think that the army will continue to run the show backstage, but i think they stand to benefit more from remaining out of power explicitly...at least from what i've been able to piece together.

what seems more obvious is that time is critical.
there's talk of a general strike.
food and fuel are already running low, logistics are at a snail's pace and cairo is a very very large city.

things could get ugly from any number of angles soon.

i hope mubarak figures it out and stands down.
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