Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - How prepared are you for civil war/invasion/etc?

The_Dunedan · 12-14-2010, 11:39 AM

Prepared? Superbly. Broken down by the Five B's:

Beans (food and water): Three gardens (approx 2 acres total), beef cattle, fishponds, woods full of deer and small game. Complete canning/jarring setup, plus dehydrators, drying racks, smoker and assorted cooking implimentia both gas- and wood-fired. 6 ponds plus 11 active springs means water is hardly a problem.

Band-Aids (medical equipment): Fully stocked STOMP first-aid kit for each home, smaller kits for each vehicle. Ample supplies of bandages, disinfectant, bleach (for water purification) and alcohol. NBC-rated gas-masks (with filters) and chemical suits for each resident.

Bullets (weapons and ammo): Do I -really- need to elaborate upon this one?

Booze: I live in Moonshine Country. This one a'int a problem. Likewise tobacco and other tradeable intoxicants.

Broads: The guy with all the food, medicine, and guns will have no problems in this department.

Preparedness is kind of our "thing" around here. We also have substantial gasoline and diesel storage on-site for vehicles and generators.

As for the likelihood of such a breakdown, I wouldn't bet against it. Katrina showed us how people can and will react under stress: some will hunker down and defend what's theirs, some will take to the roads, and a large number will simply start stealing anything in sight. In a long-term TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) situation (ala "Lights Out," "Patriots," or "One Second After," those folks who took to the roads will rapidly devolve into one of two population types: what survivalists half-jokingly call GypFugees (refugees forced into nomadism by lack of a refuge) and MZBs (Mutant Zombie Bikers: highly mobile gangs of looters, robbers, and general thugs).

New Orleans got bad enough that some folks very nearly became GypFugees, and the MZBs were beginning to materialize. If something like New Orleans was to persist for a lengthy period of time (say beyond 4wks), the situation would be much worse, and would stay that way for much longer.

But of course, timelines and likely outcomes are all dependent upon what type of catastrophe you're dealing with. A localized natural disaster, like a hurricane or earthquake, might produce large numbers of casualties but could be brought under control fairly quickly. Something more widespread, such as a supervolcanic eruption, limited nuclear exchange, civil war or social/economic collapse...that's a different story. In a more generalized scenario the possibilities are endless and none of them good, because they're all driven by the same factors:

1: Disease. Within a week of a generalized collapse, water-borne illness could become a serious problem. By one month, Cholera and Typhus, at very least, would be major killers. Then there's the fact that without antiseptic care, a paper-cut can kill you or cost you a limb. Then there's all the chronic illnesses we live with: how long would certain people last without Insulin, AZT, Protease Inhibitors, Athsma medications? Not long, and not well.

2: Scarcity. Hungry people get desperate, and desperate people do desperate, stupid, vicious things. Andre`Chikatillo testified that when he was a boy during WWII, the most terrifying thing to see on the streets of Leningrad was a well-fed, fat-faced man. There was no food in Leningrad: such a man got that way by eating human flesh. Chikatillo's elder brother was also reportedly cannibalised during the Wheat Wars. Growing up with these traumas is believed by many to have been responsible for Chikatillo's cannibalism. Thanks to Just In Time resupply, most grocery-stores only carry 3-5 days worth of product, and that's 3-5 days at normal rates of consumption/purchasing. Ever seen what happens when it snows in the Deep South? People in the US already kill each other over Christmas presents and have violent smash stampedes every "Black Friday:" how well do you think people like that will react when there's no food left in the stores and all the Food Stamp cards don't work anymore? What will people, who have -zero- wealth beyond fancy, useless toys, do? Kill, steal, loot and burn.

3: Tribalism. America is full of disparate racial, ethnic, social, religious, and cultural groups. Many of these groups do not get along very well, and already express this lack of congeniality through the frequent use of violence. With no cops, no Fire Dept, and plenty of frightened/unarmed victims from "Them Over There" to choose from, this situation will deteriorate very quickly. Under these kinds of circumstances, large portions of every major city in America would burn to the ground after being stripped to the bones.

Basically, any scenario lasting beyond 90 days (and probably much less than that) quickly devolves into the Balkans.

12-14-2010, 11:39 AM	#22 (permalink)
The_Dunedan Junkie	Prepared? Superbly. Broken down by the Five B's: Beans (food and water): Three gardens (approx 2 acres total), beef cattle, fishponds, woods full of deer and small game. Complete canning/jarring setup, plus dehydrators, drying racks, smoker and assorted cooking implimentia both gas- and wood-fired. 6 ponds plus 11 active springs means water is hardly a problem. Band-Aids (medical equipment): Fully stocked STOMP first-aid kit for each home, smaller kits for each vehicle. Ample supplies of bandages, disinfectant, bleach (for water purification) and alcohol. NBC-rated gas-masks (with filters) and chemical suits for each resident. Bullets (weapons and ammo): Do I -really- need to elaborate upon this one? Booze: I live in Moonshine Country. This one a'int a problem. Likewise tobacco and other tradeable intoxicants. Broads: The guy with all the food, medicine, and guns will have no problems in this department. Preparedness is kind of our "thing" around here. We also have substantial gasoline and diesel storage on-site for vehicles and generators. As for the likelihood of such a breakdown, I wouldn't bet against it. Katrina showed us how people can and will react under stress: some will hunker down and defend what's theirs, some will take to the roads, and a large number will simply start stealing anything in sight. In a long-term TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) situation (ala "Lights Out," "Patriots," or "One Second After," those folks who took to the roads will rapidly devolve into one of two population types: what survivalists half-jokingly call GypFugees (refugees forced into nomadism by lack of a refuge) and MZBs (Mutant Zombie Bikers: highly mobile gangs of looters, robbers, and general thugs). New Orleans got bad enough that some folks very nearly became GypFugees, and the MZBs were beginning to materialize. If something like New Orleans was to persist for a lengthy period of time (say beyond 4wks), the situation would be much worse, and would stay that way for much longer. But of course, timelines and likely outcomes are all dependent upon what type of catastrophe you're dealing with. A localized natural disaster, like a hurricane or earthquake, might produce large numbers of casualties but could be brought under control fairly quickly. Something more widespread, such as a supervolcanic eruption, limited nuclear exchange, civil war or social/economic collapse...that's a different story. In a more generalized scenario the possibilities are endless and none of them good, because they're all driven by the same factors: 1: Disease. Within a week of a generalized collapse, water-borne illness could become a serious problem. By one month, Cholera and Typhus, at very least, would be major killers. Then there's the fact that without antiseptic care, a paper-cut can kill you or cost you a limb. Then there's all the chronic illnesses we live with: how long would certain people last without Insulin, AZT, Protease Inhibitors, Athsma medications? Not long, and not well. 2: Scarcity. Hungry people get desperate, and desperate people do desperate, stupid, vicious things. Andre`Chikatillo testified that when he was a boy during WWII, the most terrifying thing to see on the streets of Leningrad was a well-fed, fat-faced man. There was no food in Leningrad: such a man got that way by eating human flesh. Chikatillo's elder brother was also reportedly cannibalised during the Wheat Wars. Growing up with these traumas is believed by many to have been responsible for Chikatillo's cannibalism. Thanks to Just In Time resupply, most grocery-stores only carry 3-5 days worth of product, and that's 3-5 days at normal rates of consumption/purchasing. Ever seen what happens when it snows in the Deep South? People in the US already kill each other over Christmas presents and have violent smash stampedes every "Black Friday:" how well do you think people like that will react when there's no food left in the stores and all the Food Stamp cards don't work anymore? What will people, who have -zero- wealth beyond fancy, useless toys, do? Kill, steal, loot and burn. 3: Tribalism. America is full of disparate racial, ethnic, social, religious, and cultural groups. Many of these groups do not get along very well, and already express this lack of congeniality through the frequent use of violence. With no cops, no Fire Dept, and plenty of frightened/unarmed victims from "Them Over There" to choose from, this situation will deteriorate very quickly. Under these kinds of circumstances, large portions of every major city in America would burn to the ground after being stripped to the bones. Basically, any scenario lasting beyond 90 days (and probably much less than that) quickly devolves into the Balkans. __________________ "I personally think that America's interests would be well served if after or at the time these clowns begin their revolting little hate crime the local police come in and cart them off on some trumped up charges or other. It is necessary in my opinion that America makes an example of them to the world." --Strange Famous, advocating the use of falsified charges in order to shut people up.