This might seem strange but I'm voting for power supply. PSUs slowly lose both peak and sustained wattage output over time. As they lose power, they literally can only power certain peripherals at a time.
Mouse movement and LCD refresh seem almost entirely unrelated, until you consider that they both require power. A mouse only needs power when it is moving (to calculate displacement from original) and I wonder if that might be just enough to temporarily suck power away from the video card. The intermittent nature of it makes me think it's even more likely, and the fact that you've got dual output is an even bigger draw on power. VGA (D-SUB) takes less GPU cycles than does DVI, and would require less V, strictly speaking.
If you've got a multimeter, you might want to check the pins and see what their voltages are. I bet you're not seeing anywhere near +5V and +12V at the same amperage as when it was new. You could also try harvesting another power supply if you have one, just to see if the problem goes away.
I'd also expect it to be more likely to happen the greater your memory footprint. Open tons of programs that consume a lot of hard drive time (reads/writes) or RAM swapping (music does this well) and I bet it occurs more frequently - the ram and HD spike in their power draw during those times.
If it's really tied to mouse movement, it really can't have anything to do with the cabling..
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