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The democrats will lose a bunch of seats, but the media and "analysts" will completely misstate the reason for that. In the end, the economy still isn't doing well, which always leads to heavy incumbent losses.
Just like people are completely misstating the "tea party" phenomenon. All this "change" and "outside the establishment" talk about the tea party is bullshit. The tea party candidates are basically the Bush hardcore supporters within the party. I am not saying that people who are in the tea party are Bush hardcore supporters, but the candidates certainly are.
I mean, who are the "outsiders?" Ken Buck, the guy who got into national politics because he was hired by Dick Cheney? Rick Scott, Bush's business partner on the Texas Rangers? Mike Lee, Alito's clerk? Pat Toomey, former congressman and president of the club for growth? Christine Odonnel, the same candidate from 2008? The tea party, as an electoral phenomenon, are a prime example of astro turfing.
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