Originally Posted by Jetée

After rummaging it around in my head for a while, I came up with my formula(s), and decided to share it (finally); tell me what you think.


AFC
Division winners (3 pts each correctly assumed)
nwe
bal
sdg
ind

Wildcards (2 pts)
ten
hou

NFC
Division winners (3 pts)
was
gnb
sfo
atl

Wildcards (2 pts)
nyg
nor

- - -

two toss-up wildcards (both conferences; "surprise" contenders; no pts... yet)
mia
min

-- this category is more like a "if one of my wildcard/division winners above didn't pan out, I would have chosen this team instead".
It's a 'safety what-if', but the wrinkle in it is, as of right now, it's not worth anything to include it. Would you assign this category a point(s) if the presumer, assumed correctly?

- - -

Super Bowl Outcome (4 pts for each team correctly assumed; 10 pts for the winning prediction)
nwe vs. gnb (winner emboldened)

-- 50 total points (this is if I get every single one of my above predictions right, minus the "toss-ups".)

- - -
+ bonus

if I were to include the AFC/NFC Championships into the matter as you suggested, I would slightly tweak the scoring points after the initial playoff teams predicted, but before the SB Picks.
It would go as follows: (4 pts each team that makes it; 5 points to victor)

AFC: nwe vs. bal
NFC: nor vs. gnb

...and then follows the SB Picks (- to this point, all correct choices yields a total of 58, before your pick to the year-end NFL Championship Team)

Super Bowl (II)
nwe vs. gnb (additional 10 points if you predicted it)

with this revised scoring, again, assuming this is 100%-probability prediction, there is 68 total points to be had.

- - - - -

so, offering this up to a pool of participants, based on the end results yielding some sort of incentive ($$$) how do you like my system?
It doesn't need points, I'll admit, but with this, it does add value to the various stages of the playoffs, and therefore, adds an element of skill/foresight/mastery , in addition to the ever-present "lucky factor" that follows the NFL game.

what do you think? do you like the 50-point or 68-based system?
what would be your picks?
should I spread the word on this forthwith?
(I worked a long time elucidating it to you; did I mention this?)