The_Dunedan

The problem is that, from the Chinese perspective, the US Navy (esp. the carriers and escorts) are just one, big, happy target. You heard right: target.

Thanks to the advent of the following:

1: High-speed antiship cruise-missiles. Weapons like the SS-N-22 "Sunburn" and it's successors are too fast, too maneuverable, and too stealthy for the Phalanx CIWS to defend against. The Navy has been quite forthright about this for years. We simply do not possess a defense against these weapons, one warhead from which could severely damage a carrier and destroy any smaller vessel. With semi-ballistic hypersonic warhead busses (ie the "Sizzler" variant of the Klub missile complex) now coming online, the Navy has more-or-less gone into Panic Mode to find something that can even detect, let alone intercept, such a weapon. Raytheon is working on a laser system, but says they're 5-7 years away from deployment at best. The Russian/Indian "BrahMos-I/-II" project is even more worrying, with a cruising speed which exceeds 5.2 Mach in the Brahmos-II. At those kinds of speeds, kinetic energy alone is a significant cause of damage, even discounting the explosive payload.

2: Ballistic anti-ship missiles. China's newest toy, with a sub-orbital impact velocity of over 10.0 Mach. The Navy admits bluntly that they have no defense against such a weapon, and cannot strike its' launchers due to the weapon's extended range.

3: Rocket-propelled bottom-rising mines. These are typically buried in the sediment of the seabed (rendering them undetectable to minesweeper's sonar) and are triggered by the magnetic-field distortion of a large ship overhead. Most types detonate approx. 100' below the ship's keel, creating a rising column of expanding gasses (along with a powerful shock wave) which is capable of breaking the keel of any ship afloat. These mines are undetectable until they fire, and unstoppable once they do.

4: 2nd Generation guided supercavitating torpedoes. A guided torpedo with a short range (5-7 miles), but with a closing speed of over 200mph, this weapon is designed to do two things: distract and disorient attacking submarines (by forcing them to maneuver radically to avoid the weapon, requiring them to cut the control wires of any weapons they have already fired) and to destroy carriers at close range. The Chinese have proven multiple times that the extremely quiet diesel-electric attack subs (running new German and Swedish powerplants) can and -do- approach to within firing range of this weapon. The first time was 4-ish years ago, but Chinese D-E attack boats have repeatedly surfaced within striking range of US CBG's since, having approached under electric power and remained undetected until they broke the surface.

Since the invention of the anti-ship cruisemissile, carriers have been nothing but targets. The Falkland Islands War should have been a "Billy Mitchell Moment" for the major navies of the world, but was mostly ignored (and for most of the same reasons Mitchell was). The price will be paid in the next war.


Basically, short of a nuclear engagement, we have no military means of stopping the Chinese from doing whatever they like within their own naval sphere of influence. They've never been very good at projecting power beyond their own territorial waters, and are still somewhat deficient in this*. However, everything with 1,000 miles of the Chinese mainland is essentially theirs. If nukes are off the table, the only potential leverage we have over the Chinese is economic, and while our currencies are closely tied the Chinese posess a growing economy (which we don't) and a huge domestic manufacturing capability (which we also don't). Any economic action taken against China would hurt us -far- worse than it would hurt them, and don't think Mr. Hu et al aren't aware of that.



* The new Aircraft Carrying Heavy Cruiser currently undergoing final fit-out may change this, in part.