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Originally Posted by filtherton
I'd say it's more stats than calculus.
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It is both. The ability to develop predictive formulas is calculus.
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I don't think your distinction between science and art reflects reality. Science is an art form, especially when prognostication is involved.
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I will re-read this line of discussion but it seems that some are taking issue with the ability to predict behaviors and forecast with accuracy. I think it can be done and is not a guessing game even when the behaviors of people are involved.
---------- Post added at 01:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:03 PM ----------
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Originally Posted by roachboy
you could use similar kinds of models to demonstrate that crowds moving through open corridors will tend to break left when confronted by an obstacle.
because that tendency is consistent, so predictable, it's also rational, isn't it?
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Rational behaviors do not always result in correct behavior or the most logical behavior. Correct behavior may require information that a rational person does not have or an analysis that a rational person does not do. However, given consistency, rational behaviors that do not lead to correct behavior can be explained and predicted.
Las Vagas, given the odds of winning games of chance against the house, should not exist based on what one would consider rational behavior in the context of correctness. But it does, and the folk who build and operate casinos, very easily predict the behaviors of their visitors.
---------- Post added at 01:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:12 PM ----------
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Originally Posted by filtherton
I think people routinely do things that they know are counter to their best interest. Cigarette sales and the obesity epidemic are good examples. I think people tend to choose ease and convenience over their own best interest. If this were not the case our economy would be vastly different.
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There is certainly obsessive, compulsory and addictive behaviors, but there is also a person who makes a choice between the benefits of immediate gratification and the long-term costs.