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forecasting is only as good as the assumptions used. And one of the assumptions is about what rational people would do, but there are way too many variables for anyone to know what different people value, so as a result, even assuming rationality, prediction is hard.
At the gross level, certain things do hold true, like the downward sloping demand curve and the upward sloping supply curve. But that's a very blunt instrument.
This just underscores that Hayek was right - central planning always fails because the planners can never have all the information they need, when they need it, in order to make good decisions -- and because they are subject to the same irrationalities as everyone else.
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