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Old 06-02-2010, 04:20 AM   #24 (permalink)
GreyWolf
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Location: Eastern Canada
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Famous View Post
I understand what I typed, but I dont understand how it can be possible!
If you look at your example, and read my previous post, you'll see your answer.

Monty is NOT opening a door at random. If he did that, sometimes (1 out of 3 times) he'd reveal the car. But he never does. If you work your examples so that he opens a door at random, you'd have more choices, and you would end up only winning half the time, as you expect. But because he ONLY opens a door with a goat behind it, he changes the probabilities of the outcome from the original conditions, favouring the switch.
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