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I think we are clearly on track to rid ourselves of the video store (bricks and mortar rental establishments like Blockbuster) which will be replaced by Video on Demand. There is little holding this back. I know I would love it if I could watch any film, at any time (ie not just the latest blockbusters). The only thing holding this back is the antiquated thinking of most rights holders and the cost of digitizing, storing and serving some obscure film that may not have the potential audience to warrant the set up costs. In the meantime, a good percentage of films will become available.
Television is another beast. I can see a day where Free to Air network television comes to look and feel a lot more like General Entertainment cable channels (such as Universal, Bravo, USA, etc.). A lot more daytime repeats of primetime programming, fewer original programs, etc. Some will ditch their local programming and others (in bigger centres) will leverage their local audiences to capitalize on local audiences. I am also thinking that subscription television (in one form or another) will rule. The days of ad driven free to air will be gone. Think about the feel of Satellite Radio.
In this sort of world, niche television rules. I have been thinking for years that television will become much more like a magazine. You buy one magazine over another because an editor has chosen content for you and you keep buying it because you trust them to serve you what you want.
The extrapolation of this will be the ability to make and program your own channels. Content is served up VOD style and you can create your own playlists.
My biggest issue with this is how to market new content and drive viewership. Which leads me back to the editor idea. You could end up with taste makers that develop playlists for you.
No idea if any of this will come to pass... just musing.
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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke
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