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Zeraph · 12-06-2009, 11:55 AM

I give WoW extra time because MMOs are the exception to the general gaming rules. You can't compare MMOs to how games like Fallout and UO did back when. People get attached to their characters which creates nostalgia which keeps people coming back periodically even if they don't play much. This doesn't mean much for smaller games, but with such a huge subscription base its going to take quite awhile for WoW to run down. The other reason I give WoW extra time, is there's like, what? 1 good MMO on the horizon? TOR. And it takes a long time to develop new ones plus about another year of live time to take away/compete from WoW.

And lets be clear, when I (we?) say "fall" I don't mean overnight drop or even over a month. MMOs never drop out that quickly (even if there's an initial surge to try the new game, there's usually an "aftershock" of going back to the old before leaving it for good), even low sub ones. I think there are even some EQ, AO, AC, and DAoC servers still up. So coming up for a definition of failure might be important to this subject.

I put forward that to fall (not just fail, i.e. have been popular enough to fall in the first place) an MMO needs to lose more than 51% of its player base over a period of a year.

As to the concern that genres don't change much, and a racing game is still just a racing game; I'd say that an MMO is so much more complex than a racing game. It's really an amalgamation of nearly every genre. It reflects real life. It will never stop evolving. Plus, an argument can be made that most genres there has been a real life activity that it was already based off of. Racing is obvious, shooter games=hunting, etc. So in a sense those games have been around for quite awhile.

MMOs on the other hand, are only a decade old. The closest analog in history (D&D) is still only ~30 years old. Still very very young compared to the other genres. Sure most of them are centered on fighting, but that does not define the genre. Not in the same way a gun defines an FPS. I'd say MMOs are just in their infancy, and we have yet to see what they will turn into.

12-06-2009, 11:55 AM	#19 (permalink)
Zeraph Banned Location: The Cosmos	I give WoW extra time because MMOs are the exception to the general gaming rules. You can't compare MMOs to how games like Fallout and UO did back when. People get attached to their characters which creates nostalgia which keeps people coming back periodically even if they don't play much. This doesn't mean much for smaller games, but with such a huge subscription base its going to take quite awhile for WoW to run down. The other reason I give WoW extra time, is there's like, what? 1 good MMO on the horizon? TOR. And it takes a long time to develop new ones plus about another year of live time to take away/compete from WoW. And lets be clear, when I (we?) say "fall" I don't mean overnight drop or even over a month. MMOs never drop out that quickly (even if there's an initial surge to try the new game, there's usually an "aftershock" of going back to the old before leaving it for good), even low sub ones. I think there are even some EQ, AO, AC, and DAoC servers still up. So coming up for a definition of failure might be important to this subject. I put forward that to fall (not just fail, i.e. have been popular enough to fall in the first place) an MMO needs to lose more than 51% of its player base over a period of a year. As to the concern that genres don't change much, and a racing game is still just a racing game; I'd say that an MMO is so much more complex than a racing game. It's really an amalgamation of nearly every genre. It reflects real life. It will never stop evolving. Plus, an argument can be made that most genres there has been a real life activity that it was already based off of. Racing is obvious, shooter games=hunting, etc. So in a sense those games have been around for quite awhile. MMOs on the other hand, are only a decade old. The closest analog in history (D&D) is still only ~30 years old. Still very very young compared to the other genres. Sure most of them are centered on fighting, but that does not define the genre. Not in the same way a gun defines an FPS. I'd say MMOs are just in their infancy, and we have yet to see what they will turn into. Last edited by Zeraph; 12-06-2009 at 11:58 AM..