Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
Shakespeare would put it this way: "what is past is prologue". The only thing that makes forecasting long-term patterns appear "easier" than short-term patterns is the assumption that the broader patterns of the past will continue into the future. The real challenge is figuring out when or what can cause long-term patterns to change. Looking at a, 24 minute, 24 hour period, 24 day period, 24 year period, or 24 million year period the challenge is the same, the only change is in how quickly you find out if your assumptions are wrong.
---------- Post added at 05:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:24 PM ----------
So, what is your point? What makes study or understanding the climate so difficult? Measuring temperature is easy. Understanding the variables that affect temperature is easy. What gets difficult is understand how those variables inter-play with each other. Given the variables a scientist can not do controlled "global" experiments, so the basis of what they do is grounded in assumptions. We have a right to know and to be able to challenge and test these assumptions, I don't understand what all the mystical type, we can't possible understand stuff comes from.
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You have so little understanding of how knowledge creation works it is not even worth discussing it with you. But you should be aware that if what you said holds true, every single piece of knowledge would have to be discovered anew every day, right?
After all, just because we've consistently estimated that at certain pressures and certain temperatures water becomes vapor doesn't mean that it will be like that in the future.
And you have every right to know, challenge and test any assumptions scientists make:
Here's all the data you could wish for on temperature
NCDC: * National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) *
get to it. If it's so easy, you should have no problems debunking all the science that points to global warming.