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Originally Posted by dippin
There is really no comparison between forecasting temperature during specific days of the week and forecasting long term weather patterns. The first is basically an estimation of day to day shocks, while the latter presents a much more stable pattern as these shocks are averaged out. As an example, it is not uncommon for day to day forecasters to get max and min temperatures wrong by as much as 10 to 20 degrees, while global monthly temperature forecasts are generally off by a matter of tenths of a degree.
As an analogy, it is very difficult to predict if a specific cancer patient will die of cancer, but it is a lot easier to know what share of the population will die of that cancer.
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Shakespeare would put it this way: "what is past is prologue". The only thing that makes forecasting long-term patterns appear "easier" than short-term patterns is the assumption that the broader patterns of the past will continue into the future. The real challenge is figuring out when or what can cause long-term patterns to change. Looking at a, 24 minute, 24 hour period, 24 day period, 24 year period, or 24 million year period the challenge is the same, the only change is in how quickly you find out if your assumptions are wrong.
---------- Post added at 05:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:24 PM ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by dippin
I don't see where Will said "scientists with Phds." He said an "education." A lifetime of study, observation, research and so on would certainly qualify as an education. It certainly beats googling something over the weekend.
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So, what is your point? What makes study or understanding the climate so difficult? Measuring temperature is easy. Understanding the variables that affect temperature is easy. What gets difficult is understand how those variables inter-play with each other. Given the variables a scientist can not do controlled "global" experiments, so the basis of what they do is grounded in assumptions. We have a right to know and to be able to challenge and test these assumptions, I don't understand what all the mystical type, we can't possible understand stuff comes from.