Quote:
Originally Posted by dksuddeth
you ever watch the news, waiting for the weather report/prediction? or on the radio? internet? I follow it everyday so I know whether I can ride the motorcycle in to work and save gas. More often than not, these guys are changing their predictions after 2 days. I would think that after years of reporting, observing, studying, etc. they would have an advantage at reporting/predicting than the average factory worker, yet 7 times out of 10 it seems I can predict weather more accurately for my own purposes. So I don't see the difference between that and the supposedly 'most advanced climate science' is when all one needs to do is look at the trends of the earths climate and weather.
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There is really no comparison between forecasting temperature during specific days of the week and forecasting long term weather patterns. The first is basically an estimation of day to day shocks, while the latter presents a much more stable pattern as these shocks are averaged out. As an example, it is not uncommon for day to day forecasters to get max and min temperatures wrong by as much as 10 to 20 degrees, while global monthly temperature forecasts are generally off by a matter of tenths of a degree.
As an analogy, it is very difficult to predict if a specific cancer patient will die of cancer, but it is a lot easier to know what share of the population will die of that cancer.