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Originally Posted by Cynthetiq
And I'm not pumping doom and gloom but the reality of the surroundings.
If the economy is getting better then HOW is it getting better? By the same ponzi schemes before? Is it just moving credit monies back and forth? What's being produced to increase the GDP?
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The thing to note is that in the fallout of the economic shitstorm of last year, banks are generally going to be more cautious when it comes to lending. And if new regulatory practices come into play (as they should), then that's something more stabilizing. Looking at the 3.5% increase in GDP, much of that is consumer spending, auto sales, and home building. How much of it was done on credit? I don't know, but I'm guessing the credit used wasn't the toxic kind we've come to know about all too well.
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By what I'm reading in the papers and in the company quarterlies, it's still not sustainable. Commercial mortgages are going to come due this coming year, a lot of the see-throughs that were supposed to be finished rentable buildings will not produce the expected jobs and tax revenue.
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There will likely be a mortgage aftershock. But there are still some things that need to take their toll before the recession will finally end. No one in their right mind is confidently declaring the recession behind us, but there are signs here and there that a) the worst is probably behind us, and b) there are signs of growth in certain meaningful areas. The economic hemorrhaging will eventually slow and then stop before things get back on track to something sustainable.