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Originally Posted by Cynthetiq
When unemployment benefits are extended to 79 weeks, it's not myopic, it's reality. I have friends who were terminated for a job that lasted 6 months and have had unemployment benefits three times longer than the job.
As far as not caring, it's not caring about it being GWB or Obama's fault. The historians and writers will sort out the blame. Right now there's work to do, not the blame game.
Companies are stating their earnings in the best light possible. I don't believe that the stellar earnings are as stellar as they are. Enron had stellar earnings as did AIG, and the rest of Wall Street. It's easy to lie on paper.
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Myopia is real. You can't look at unemployment alone and make considerable judgements on how the economy is doing or will be doing. You can't look at bank failures (from how long ago now?) on their own and make judgements on how the economy is doing or will be doing.
I'm not trying to pump sunshine; I'm just trying to point out the indicators suggesting that the economy isn't all shit.
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Originally Posted by Cynthetiq
I sit in board meetings and help to craft annual reports and 10Ks from time to time. It's easy to shuffle one line of accounting into another line to make the best possibility of shitty numbers so that they look better. Write up some good text around it, and voila, it's potentially good for a few points up on the stock. GAAP and BLC allow for lots of liberty.
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The law of averages comes up with numbers that gauge something measurable over time. The percentage of those fudging numbers probably doesn't change considerably over time. When the economy was "good," it wasn't that good. So when the economy is "bad," it isn't that bad. It all comes out as something measurable in the end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cynthetiq
Tell that to my friends at Conde Nast and the ones coming up at Borders Books.
If it's a lagging indicator, then the whole 1 year when people were saying, we're in a recession and it was supposedly "everything is fine", doesn't sit well with me and the situation now. I believe that the "recession is over" is just as much a line of bullshit.
Stores that aren't able to meet their rents because they have no customers since the customers don't have jobs is what I'm seeing now in my neighborhood and area.
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Refer to what I said about an economic "trough" above. We're in it if we're out of the recession.