I believe that off year elections generally come down to the candidates and local issues and not national parties. Any discussion of narrative should include a discussion of the individual candidates. Being that I don't live anywhere near any of the 3 races I don't know much about these candidates. But I have heard Deeds was not a very good Candidate and Corzine had all kinds of image issues (Goldman Sachs).
I also found NY-23 very interesting as the Republican candidate endorsed the Democratic candidate over the tea-party candidate.
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