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Originally Posted by Cimarron29414
Ok, first of all, it's pretty petty to get on me for typing "World Monetary Fund" instead of "International Monetary Fund." I meant the latter and typed the former because of the "World" in World Bank. Secondly, while China sets and holds its own currency exchange rate, it is the IMF and the WB which contribute to the determination that the renminbi is undervalued (which is what I was saying, albeit poorly.)
The crux of your argument, however is correct and I concede it. I did as much reading as I could on the subject and while various reports state an underevaluation between 9.5% and 54%, those calculations vary based on the bias of the researcher and are virtually impossible to calculate accurately. In fact, some believe the renminbi is even overvalued because clearly with an approximate 40% savings rate among Chinese citizens, they can easily afford everything they need with less money than they are paid.
The US dollar's current value in comparison to the renminbi is a favorable position for the U.S. Primarily, it allows us to purchase Chinese goods more cheaply as China pays their workers poorly(depending on which research you read) and with "cheap" money. This arrangement allows our lower class to continue to purchase more affordable goods from China. Since most U.S. goods which go to China do not compete directly with Chinese goods, we run little risk of having an unfavorable position if their people choosing the cheaper Chinese product over the more expensive U.S. product.
However, your original statement in this thread of thought was that the U.S. dollar is overvalued. I don't understand that assertion. According to what standard? And as an American, why is this a bad thing? Why would you want your money which you get paid to be worth less? I'm not picking a fight, I just don't understand the statement.
As for the whole M1,M2,etc - I'll just have to read some more and get back to you. In short, the debt will eventually have to be monetized and the inflation is inevitable. I'll read some more though. (We'll talk about it more later. Perhaps another thread in Economics)
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The point is that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have no role in determining the Chinese exchange rate.
As far as the dollar being overvalued, I say that basically because the US has accumulated trade account deficits for a very long time. I.e., for the deficits to disappear the dollar would have to be worth much less.
And a currency being overvalued is not good. The idea that the dollar being worth more=good is false. It means that while a dollar buys more, US goods also cost more for the rest of the world, reducing exports and increasing imports.
And no, the debt will not have to be monetized. In fact, the Federal Reserve chairman is elected to terms that are independent of the president precisely to give it independence from those matters.