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I still say he's going to get time. BBC is reporting that the US has been after him for a while and he was red listed on Interpol. This is too high profile for them to simply broker some weak deal and allow it to go soft. A judge may be sympathetic towards the victim's wishes, but seeing as how Polanski already settled with the victim for an undisclosed amount after a civil trial, there's no reason why a new criminal trial shouldn't be held on both the rape and the fugitive charge.
Some say it should be easy to find a man who is shooting a film..that I agree with, but perhaps there was some underlying red tape that caused it to be a problem.
Historically, the Swiss keep suspects that are on extradition notice in custody, so I think Polanski's lawyers will not be successful in getting him out of Swiss jail. The LA DA has a ton of heat on this case and would more than likely lose an election if this failed.
Even if the judge was considered corrupt in the first trial, the simple fact is that a judge does *not* have to honor a plea bargain set up by defense and prosecution. If a judge rejects the deal, a new plea may be entered or a trial will be held. Polanski knew he was fucked after the first deal was rejected, ran to France because they don't work with the US on extradition and now he needs to face the music. With all due respect to the victim ( previous sexual and drug history is irrelevant in a case like this), she needs to making sure this man pays in more than cash.
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