Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Jazz
Ask CNA, Reliance or Kemper how that worked for them. Hint: Reliance and Kemper are out of business (the Kemper today was spun off years ago) and CNA had a multi-billion dollar bailout from the Loews.
Also ask CIGNA how the IBNR for their P&C business that they sold to Travelers (assets only, BTW) is doing 10 years after the transaction and still before the books are closed on it. Hint: 145% loss ratio.
|
Are you suggesting IBNR was the root of the problem? I am betting, and I can do the research specific to these companies, it was related to actual losses, underwriting, and investment results.
Quote:
|
Ace, you're just not qualified to make sense of these numbers and you plain old don't know what you're talking about.
|
Oh, the first personal attack.
Quote:
|
I work in the industry and look at these numbers fairly often and I'm not qualifed either. You're WAY out of your depth, and it's glaringly apparent that you're making assumptions that are based in ignorance.
|
what assumption have I made that is way out of my depth?
You assume you know my background and professional experience? what does that say about you?
Quote:
|
If you want to have this argument about the government option, I'm happy to do so, but assuming that ANY insurance company has a handle on IBNR losses is assine,
|
There is a science to it, it is not a guessing game. Those companies that fail suffer consequences - that is what I stated.
Quote:
|
especially when I had the COO of Markel tell me 5 hours ago that it's impossible to do. The context was health care reform and the insurance industry.
|
He should be fired.
Quote:
|
Yes, I spoke to Paul Springman this morning. I've known him for years.
|
Is he willing to publicly say that his business is a guessing game and that he does not have a handle on it? Is that what you heard him say?
{added}
Here is a challenge for you. Have him read what I wrote and ask him to comment.
{added}
Here is another challenge for you. If he gave me his loss results over the past 10 years or more and a current distribution of his existing book of business, I'll calculate his IBNR and be pretty close to what it will actually prove to be.