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Originally Posted by aceventura3
Whew! I am o.k. now. An insurance company with a 125 year history of actual results can get IBNR pretty close to accurate.
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Ask CNA, Reliance or Kemper how that worked for them. Hint: Reliance and Kemper are out of business (the Kemper today was spun off years ago) and CNA had a multi-billion dollar bailout from the Loews.
Also ask CIGNA how the IBNR for their P&C business that they sold to Travelers (assets only, BTW) is doing 10 years after the transaction and still before the books are closed on it. Hint: 145% loss ratio.
Ace, you're just not qualified to make sense of these numbers and you plain old don't know what you're talking about. I work in the industry and look at these numbers fairly often and I'm not qualifed either. You're WAY out of your depth, and it's glaringly apparent that you're making assumptions that are based in ignorance. If you want to have this argument about the government option, I'm happy to do so, but assuming that ANY insurance company has a handle on IBNR losses is assine, especially when I had the COO of Markel tell me 5 hours ago that it's impossible to do. The context was health care reform and the insurance industry.
Yes, I spoke to Paul Springman this morning. I've known him for years.