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BigBen · 08-04-2009, 12:27 PM

Peak oil theory scares me, and when I first found out about it, I was intrigued. So I went online, read ad nauseum and found a few things really interesting.

I notice that the theory includes "wild price booms and busts" before the system collapses. Therefore, even if the price starts to normalize, Peak Oil contenders can state "That is predicted". Soooo, ups and downs? You are predicting that the price will go up and down for a while, and then collapse? Can you be a little more specific? Which one will be the final up-and-down?

The thing that carries the most weight for me is the dependency aspect. There is no denying that the global society and the North American society revolves around oil. No fooling. All alternative energy pales in comparison.

If I were to say that I have all of my assets and equity invested in one stock, one simple investment, and I'm hoping that everything will work out in the long run, you would count me as a fool. Yet we have centered our economy, our trade, our transportation, our food supply, our transportation requirements all on one thing. Oil based energy. Are we fools?

Peak Oil theory is pointing out that fact, and it is plain to see. Of course, this conversation quickly devolves into Doomsday scenarios, because of the singularity. Can we diversify in time? Can we become independent of this central commodity?

I don't think so. I think that the canary is long dead, and us miners are so far down the shaft that we can no longer see the cage.

Defeatist? Possibly. Hopeless? Possibly. Accurate theory? Doubtful. Accuracy does not need to be 100% here. A 50% drop would suffice.

Naw, I'm not scared. I guess I am trying to be pragmatic.

2010 seems too soon. Maybe 2020. I think that this theory has a very good foundation, but the polish has worn off.

08-04-2009, 12:27 PM	#6 (permalink)
BigBen Comedian Location: Use the search button	Peak oil theory scares me, and when I first found out about it, I was intrigued. So I went online, read ad nauseum and found a few things really interesting. I notice that the theory includes "wild price booms and busts" before the system collapses. Therefore, even if the price starts to normalize, Peak Oil contenders can state "That is predicted". Soooo, ups and downs? You are predicting that the price will go up and down for a while, and then collapse? Can you be a little more specific? Which one will be the final up-and-down? The thing that carries the most weight for me is the dependency aspect. There is no denying that the global society and the North American society revolves around oil. No fooling. All alternative energy pales in comparison. If I were to say that I have all of my assets and equity invested in one stock, one simple investment, and I'm hoping that everything will work out in the long run, you would count me as a fool. Yet we have centered our economy, our trade, our transportation, our food supply, our transportation requirements all on one thing. Oil based energy. Are we fools? Peak Oil theory is pointing out that fact, and it is plain to see. Of course, this conversation quickly devolves into Doomsday scenarios, because of the singularity. Can we diversify in time? Can we become independent of this central commodity? I don't think so. I think that the canary is long dead, and us miners are so far down the shaft that we can no longer see the cage. Defeatist? Possibly. Hopeless? Possibly. Accurate theory? Doubtful. Accuracy does not need to be 100% here. A 50% drop would suffice. Naw, I'm not scared. I guess I am trying to be pragmatic. 2010 seems too soon. Maybe 2020. I think that this theory has a very good foundation, but the polish has worn off. __________________ 3.141592654 Hey, if you are impressed with my memorizing pi to 10 digits, you should see the size of my penis.