Proper methodology doesn't exclude the factoring in the emotional and biased thinking. We have more than enough data on Saddam to determine within certain margins of error his actions. Just because something is emotional doesn't mean it cannot be predicted. Casino's have careful and incredibly accurate data on people making emotional and biased decisions, so much so that they can plan complex budgets around income from gambling. If they can create methods of deduction from something as flippant and illogical as gambling, you don't think that such methodology can be applied to the actions of world leaders?
Here:
Game Theory .net - Resources for Learning and Teaching Strategy for Business and Life
This will come in great handy for you, I hope you use the resource.