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Originally Posted by aceventura3
The value I place on innocent human life = googol or 10 to the one hundredth power x (the probability that Saddam intended to kill innocent people, which is a number greater than zero, minus the probability a normal person has intents of killing innocent people) = a number greater than zero. Any number greater than zero requires some kind of action.
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The action brings with it loss of life. If the statistical probability for the loss of American lives you've found is 0.000000000001% and an invasion of Iraq brings with it a 96% chance of Iraqi civilians dying, what does that do to your equation? If the invasion of Iraq brings with it a 76% increase in the chance of being attacked by terrorism instead of lowering it, what does that do to your equation? What purpose does oversimplifying serve you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
I think you missed the point. Scientifically you may think we know the "facts". Personally, you may think you know your limitations, the "facts". But in reality, do you? No.
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I'll make this very simple for you:
Scientific method - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Logic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
I guess you know, and you know you know, and there are no unknowns knowns, or known unknowns. Must be nice to have all the answers or to know all the answers are known based on facts.
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You do yourself a great disservice by thinking in absolutes.
There are things I know beyond any doubt, things I know beyond a reasonable doubt, things I know are by far the most likely, things I strongly suspect are likely, things I suspect are likely, things I suspect are possible, things I know are less likely, etc. There are myriad shades of gray. The yellowcake being fake thing is probably "things I know are by far the most likely". Whether or not Saddam Hussein was a threat to us is in "things I strongly suspect are likely". I can actually present evidence for these, which can be verified. It's that evidence that supports my opinions, which gives them weight. That evidence isn't something subjective, something from a human bias, it's something outside of us, which can be objectively verified.