Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
No, this is basic probability and statistics. For example the probability of heads or tails given a random coin toss is 50%. The value of heads appearing compared to tails appearing is equal. If you own a 1,000,000 home and (for the sake of argument) the probability of it being destroyed in a fire is 1% in a given one year period, would you pay to insure the home and if so how much? In my view the true value of insuring the home is $10,000. I would pay that price or less. So, given the 99 to 1 odds of not having a fire and risking a $1,000,000 is a decision I would compare to taking the action to insure the $1,000,000 for $10,000. In both cases the "value" is the same even though the probability is 99 to 1.
|
Determine within a +/-2% margin of error the odds that Saddam Hussein was seeking yellowcake, and please show your work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
I will try another approach.
Scientifically we can establish the normal physical limitations of the human body, i.e. pain tolerance, endurance, strength, heart rates, blood pressure to generate expected results given certain stimuli. We can generate a set of scientific norms and theoretical limitations. We can do all of this absent emotion and/or human bias or aversion to certain stimuli. However, when we introduce "emotion", all those known scientific facts and theoretical finding are worthless. We introduce fear and 40 year-old mother can move a weight x% more than science would predict possible. We trigger "survival" and a person can tolerate levels of pain that would normally render them unconscious.
I never omit human bias or human emotion.
|
Emotion does not give one greater physical strength, it simply motivates one to access the potential that was already there but that one was not previously motivated to reach. The real maximum capability has not changed, simply the resolve.
The woman often cited as lifting a car off her son, Angela Cavallo, said that she lifted the car less than 4 inches, which suggests that the suspension had all four tires on the ground. She didn't lift the car off the ground, she just moved it up far enough to get her pinned, unconscious son out. I can provide a link verifying this if you'd like. As an experiment, go out to your car and pull up on the back bumper (or even front bumper) and see if you can move your car three or four inches up. I'll bet money you can, even without the emotional motivation of having a loved on trapped underneath.