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Originally Posted by Willravel
This is the strangest incarnation of Pascal's Wager/Fallacy-esque thinking I've come across. By your logic, we should always act as if the least desirable outcome will happen, regardless of it's likelihood.
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No, this is basic probability and statistics. For example the probability of heads or tails given a random coin toss is 50%. The value of heads appearing compared to tails appearing is equal. If you own a 1,000,000 home and (for the sake of argument) the probability of it being destroyed in a fire is 1% in a given one year period, would you pay to insure the home and if so how much? In my view the true value of insuring the home is $10,000. I would pay that price or less. So, given the 99 to 1 odds of not having a fire and risking a $1,000,000 is a decision I would compare to taking the action to insure the $1,000,000 for $10,000. In both cases the "value" is the same even though the probability is 99 to 1.
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You don't understand why, seriously.
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Yes.
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Show me where I said that.
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I used the word "suggest"s. You did not expressly say it.
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I'm talking about objective verification. Do you understand what objective verification is?
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Yes.
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Can you grasp the concept that there are methods that can establish facts and likelihoods omitting human bias?
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I will try another approach.
Scientifically we can establish the normal physical limitations of the human body, i.e. pain tolerance, endurance, strength, heart rates, blood pressure to generate expected results given certain stimuli. We can generate a set of scientific norms and theoretical limitations. We can do all of this absent emotion and/or human bias or aversion to certain stimuli. However, when we introduce "emotion", all those known scientific facts and theoretical finding are worthless. We introduce fear and 40 year-old mother can move a weight x% more than science would predict possible. We trigger "survival" and a person can tolerate levels of pain that would normally render them unconscious.
I never omit human bias or human emotion.