Compare and contrast your very mobile point throughout the thread.
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Originally Posted by Willravel
Let's say that Mousavi wins. How would Iran change? Do you think he can keep his promises about a more free society and better relations with foreign governments?
Personally, I think he's the best change Iran's had for stability for some time. If he wins, anti-Islamists around the world will lose a lot of their ammunition. Israel will probably always hate Iran, but conservatives in the US, UK, and Europe will have to admit that Iran isn't the same supposed imminent threat that they've been talking about for 8 years. I also think that stability in Iran will help the horrible situation in Iraq by proxy.
Between the recent election in Lebanon and this potential victory for Mousavi, things in the Middle East might finally be starting to head in the right direction.
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So basically, the election of Mousavi is the potential bridge to detente with Obama in office.
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Originally Posted by Willravel
Mousavi is running on a platform that's much different than I'd imagine the clerics are interested in supporting. He's not pro-west per se, but he's certainly open to forming positive/constructive relationships with the US, UK, and Europe which stands in stark contrast to what Ahmadinejad has done, which I'm assuming was at the behest of the clerics. Because he's so much different than the president I think we all agree was a puppet, it seems safe to assume that (if he's being truthful in his campaign promises), he's not another Ahmadinejad.
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If Ahmaninejad was a puppet, Mousavi will be too because they will be beholden to the exact same group that approved their nominations. If Ahmaninejad was acting at the behest of the clerics (and I'm pretty sure that he was NOT), then what is going to influence Mousavi? How would his election possibly be any different?
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Originally Posted by Willravel
I'm not saying he's going to be totally outside the influence of the clerics if elected, I don't think Iran is ready for that kind of change yet, simply that he doesn't seem to be acting in the manner that the clerics that support Ahmadinejad want. I'm sure all of the clerics are not of one mind on all political or governmental issues. If he's under the influence of more progressive clerics, then I feel Iran is moving in the right direction if he's elected.
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"The clerics" is a misnomer. It's one cleric who really matter, Khamenei. He appoints the Council of Guardians. He is the real seat of power in Iran, especially if you've read their constitution. Any movement is going to come from his office, not the President's. Like I said, the President's office is a bright shiny thing that distracts from the real movements on the Iranian landscape.
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Originally Posted by Willravel
Like roachboy said, I don't think there's any reason to assume the shadowy clerics are always of one mind. I know virtually no power lies with the president of Iran, but I think the fact that Mousavi's platform looks a lot different than Ahmadinejad's speaks of the real people in power shifting. You can't simply discount that out of hand.
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Will, I apologize if I was condescending, but you do not seem to be reading my posts or refuting any of my points with any actual evidence. You also, at least from where I sit, seem ignorant of the basic machinations of Iranian politics. So let me spell it all out for you.
The Supreme Leader appoints the Council of Guardians. All 12 of them, who are all mullahs or clerics. At election time, the Council, among it's other duties, reviews each potential candidate for acceptability to religious (and political) doctrine and submits the names to the people for election. The Supreme Leader is the Commander-In-Chief of the armed forces and appoints all judges. He approves all cabinet appointments. He shares responsibility for foreign policy.
Will, I think that you're trying to apply democratic ideals to a theocracy, and that's just not possible. The Iranian system works very differently than pretty much any other system in the world. I think you need to do your own research if you're going to understand what this election is going to mean in real terms.