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Living in a Warmer Insanity
Super Moderator
Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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Another NK nuke test
Quote:
Reporting from Seoul -- As the international community condemned North Korea's nuclear test and missile launch today, analysts said the tests signaled Pyongyang's growing disillusionment over the U.S. refusal to conduct bilateral talks.
North Korea's ailing leader Kim Jong Il, determined to seek more drastic measures to bring the Obama Administration to the bargaining table, could even carry out more nuclear tests as a way to bully the U.S. and its allies, experts said today.
A Russian news agency reported that an official in North Korea's embassy in Moscow has claimed that new tests would take place "if the United States and its allies continue the policy of intimidation against North Korea," Tass reported.
Figuratively speaking, North Korea's dual actions Monday were aimed directly at Washington, which has directed its attentions away from Pyongyang as officials direct wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Last year, a lot of people from Seoul and Washington visited Pyongyang telling Kim and his people that once Obama was in the White House, the U.S. was going to be a totally different entity to deal with," said Lee Dong-bok, a senior associate in Seoul for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
"But it's not working out that way. That's the reason North Korea is acting in such an erratic manner. "
Monday's tests followed a rocket launch in April that Pyongyang claimed placed a communications satellite into orbit launch but many contended was a disguised missile launch.
The satellite did not reach outer space, analysts say, but the U.S., South Korea and Japan nonetheless reacted with anger, seeking new sanctions against North Korea from the U.N. security council.
Nations worldwide reacted with concern at Pyongyang's newest underground nuclear test – its first since 2006 – which was followed just hours later by the test of a short-range missile.
In a statement, President Barack Obama called the developments "a grave concern for all nations."
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak voiced disappointment with Pyongyang as he met with top security officials in a bunker below the Blue House, the nation's seat of power.
Japan vowed to seek a stern response from the U.N. security council as it met today to discuss North Korea.
And Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said North Korean deserves "nothing other than our absolute condemnation, and that condemnation should be echoed around our region and the globe," he told parliament, according to wires reports.
Analysts speculated that Kim's timing on the launch was two-fold: he wanted to impress the North Korean military and help set the stage for his successor.
"Since the appearance of health issues with Kim Jong-Il last year, the North Korean military became more influential," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of Inter-Korean Relations Studies Program at Sejong Institute near Seoul.
"Therefore, I have a sense that the military may have concluded that possession of nuclear weapons is very important."
Since he reportedly suffered a debilitating stroke last year, Kim has sought to arrange a smooth handover of power to one of three sons. He would like to start talks with Washington before that power shift takes place, experts say.
"Kim now feels that because of his declining health, he feels he must be on a faster timetable," said Moon Hong-sik, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul.
"The U.S. has ignored him. He feels the pressure and he's upping the odds with Monday's actions."
Cheong said he expected Pyongyang to soon indicate the nuclear test was in some part planned by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader's youngest son and frontrunner to take control of the secretive state.
"The outside world tends to underestimate Kim Jong-un at his young age," he said. "If Kim Jong-un played a decisive role in this nuclear test, it helps spread internally and externally a perception that he is a man of resolution."
Analysts also speculated about North Korea's choice to launch two tests on one day. "They know that Washington responds only when they brandish nuclear arms or missiles," said Lee of the CSIS.
"They also know the world is eager to know whether they are at a stage to combine nuclear power with missile know-how. So they might have done the tests together to create the impression that they are making headway to that goal."
But in doing so, others said, North Korea might have laid all of its weapons-related bargaining cards on the table.
"They played all their aces – they don't have much else," said Andrei Lankov, a political scientist at Kookmin University in Seoul who specializes in North Korea.
He said Pyongyang might also might "try to be inventive" and make a publicized attempt to sell nuclear materials to a developing nation to keep its enemies guessing.
Lankov said only one aspect of Pyongyang's move was unexpected. "I'm surprised they did this so fast," he said.
"I would have predicted that they would have waited a few months from their rocket launch to increase the tension, raise the pressure. "This was a message not only for the U.S. but for all other parties involved: don't forget us."
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Didn't they just get done blowing up a nuke plant? Didn't they just agree to get rid of their nuke program?
I see this a test of Obama and yet another cry Kim Jong for attention. To me he's like a kid in kindergarten screaming "pay attention to me!... or else."
Wonder what happens when they pull Dr A Q Khan and sell their nuke tech to other countries, say Iran?
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