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understood---but that presupposes that aghanistan is still the central theater of operations for the taliban. what i wonder is whether that's starting to change--or has been changing and we collectively haven't noticed particularly because the way information is sorted regarding the taliban. from this, it's early to say what'll happen--but analyses of pakistan have consistently pointed out its internal instability, its dividedness etc...in a way, this could work against what the article implies could be a quite radical problem from tha pakistani state because changing around who controls areas in a space that's already divided is different from taking over spaces in an area that's centrally controlled---the political implications are more limited.
what is worrisome in this is obvious--the appears to be a kind of chain reaction that is a result of the afghanistan action in the broad sense--and of the apparent impasse that has been in effect between the us et al and pakistan about dealing one way or another with the taliban in pakistan. so if this represents a strategic change on the part of the taliban, it seems that it is happening in an area outside any meaningful control of the us et al and poses a very real problem in regional political--and potentially military terms.
what i guess this comes to really is whether the us et al now find themselves bracing against the wrong door.
it's a perplexing set of consequences. and they can't be good. this really can't be good.
so options---increasing military aid to the pakistani government. but if the government is already in such a weak position that this movement in swat can be interpreted as a threat to it, there are obvious risks in increasing military aid. but if the us doesn't do it, what consequences follow from that? same set of questions with economic aid, really--the objective might be to attempt to bolster the government's position--but is that necessarily a good thing to do except in geopolitical terms? wouldn't the us find itself backing the wrong horse? but it's already backing the wrong horse.
the really alarming prospects involve military intervention.
and there are nukes.
great fucking idea, nuclear proliferation.
sorry, but i can't seem to get by it.
this would be serious enough without them--but it is with them.
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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear
it make you sick.
-kamau brathwaite
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