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The markets are running away with themselves on the back of the recent announcements from ponyville: We're giving it all away! It's exactly the same story as December time when the FED announced it's first tranche of QE, etc.
There'll be some euphoria for a while, but eventually it'll come back down... Germany's Commerzbank(?) revised its GDP prediction for The Fatherland yesterday: -7% for 2009, down from -3% a couple of months ago. 2nd half recovery baked-in there.
November to February the markets rebounded 27% from the lows. I think we're already up towards 30% from the recent lows. Moves like this just aren't rational.
I heard something from Dr Faber over the last few days, talking about the eventuality of a period of base-building near a bottom, a period of years, which would then be the potential basis of a return to bull or bullish conditions... Looking at the NASDAQ's relative stability over the past 6 years as an example of a multi-year base building period.
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"I do not agree that the dog in a manger has the final right to the manger even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit that right. I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill, 1937 --{ORLY?}--
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