Quote:
Originally Posted by roachboy
ace--what's obvious from your posts is that you haven't been able to wrap your mind around what's happening. so rather than deal with the present situation, you consistently flatten it into what you laughingly (i assume) consider "the normal" in order to maintain some sense of coherence for your ideological position--and your "analyses" of the present situation are entirely about this combination of premises.
so why pretend that you're talking about the present then?
la la la, just a cyclical downturn. la la la.
guyy's right.
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I would like your explanation of the LEI;
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Feb. 19, 2009…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in January, following a 0.2 percent increase in December and a 0.7 percent decline in November. Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The conference Board: “The economy has been in recession for over a year, but the level of intensity may begin to ease over the next few months. The second half of 2009 may see a period of anemic growth. In fact, a return to robust growth may not occur until well into 2010, even if the long climb starts a few months from now.”
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http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...nts/bblead.pdf
or Industrial Production;
Quote:
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Industrial production fell 1.8 percent in January. At 101.3 percent of its 2002 average, output in January was 10.0 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in the manufacturing sector dropped 2.5 percent with broad-based declines among its components.
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http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...nts/bbprod.pdf
The december 2008 drop was 2.4% compared to the 1.8% January drop.
or manufactured goods orders;
Quote:
New orders for manufactured goods in December, down five consecutive months, decreased $14.8 billion or 3.9 percent to $362.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 6.5
percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 4.4 percent.
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http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...ents/bbfac.pdf
There are clear indicators that the most sever drops may be behind us and we may start seeing trend reversals. And when we consider a 10% year over year decline in industrial production it is far from the doom and gloom scenario you and others want us to believe and supports my claim of a cyclical downturn.
I have a sister 7 years my junior, when we were kids she used to do the "la, la, la" crap too. Now she just changes the subject when she is having difficulty communicating with me. I am not saying that you should, but be advised, I am relentless.