Thread: gaza redux
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Old 12-30-2008, 07:31 AM   #60 (permalink)
roachboy
 
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that's absurd. this is not security---this is massacre.
but let's think about this for a minute...in the article i posted earlier about divisions amongst israeli analysts on the question of whether this operation makes any sense, there is a series of quite strong statements that the most likely outcomes of this will be entirely counterproductive for israeli security. have a look at that.

some riffs:

a) if things go as it looks like they might and israel launches an all-out campaign to physically eliminate hamas--which is more or less the official line---by carrying out an operation in a largely civilian area against an enemy that does not necessarily wear pretty uniforms so you can see them---there will inevitably be extensive "collateral damage"---every last bit of which will (and of this i have no doubt) become rallying points for the proliferation of more anti-israeli movements and actions.

if they do not physically destroy hamas, they will function as the most important rallying point for the movement that can be imagined.

b) the consequences of this action for the mubarak government are likely to be problematic---you can already see that it is galvanizing opposition to mubarak based on the perception that the government is in bed with israel. a weakened egypt is a HUGE problem for israeli security.

what mubarak seems to be trying to do is use this fiasco to manoever fatah into some semblance of power in gaza.
this brings mubarak into direct line with israel and those nitwits from the bush administration (don't get me started about these people...)

c) this action is already a significant source of legitmation for hezbollah in southern lebanon.

d) this action has already prompted syria to pull out of ongoing peace negociations and will complicate needlessly the ongoing quartet process---the quartet finds itself aligning with the united nations (and against the bush administration and israel) in calling for an immediate cease fire. the lack of a process in no way serves israel's security interests.

i see this action as following much more from the discourse of "terrorism" and its debilitating consequences than from any coherent assessment of what might best serve the longer term security needs of israel. and it is, i think, also prompted by the fact that these waning days of the lame-duck bush administration may be the last period for some time wherein israel can assume automatic approval of anything and everything it does.


meanwhile, in the fog of information war, there seems to have been some bizarre decision to claim that only women and children are civilians. so there's only been 31 children killed and 140 wounded in the interests of israeli security. and there's been roughly the same number of women killed. men, who apparently are not civilians, make up the bulk of the remaining 350 dead. i haven't yet seen updated numbers of wounded. it is early still on day 4.
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