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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
Technically, a "recession" is a scaling back of GDP, but this can be misleading. A nation can maintain a strong GDP thank in part to wars and disasters.
An "economic recession," the measure of some economists, look at other numbers such as employment rates (as you have pointed out), retail figures, industry production levels (broken down by sector) [edit: I see a lot of production losses in your link, from last year to this year], and other things. What have been the recent reports on these things in the U.S.? How do they compare historically? It might be too early to tell. Also, how does the historical record compare to such factors as the mortgage and credit crisis and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?
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I don't dispute the claim we are in a recession. I think economic indicators were trending positively from about late 2001 until late 2006 or early 2007, since they have trended negatively. In my opinion the current negative trend will continue until mid 2009. Something has to make the trend reverse, a change in administration may be enough - so far all of the "bailout" actions have not reversed the trends. when Bush took office, I think his tax cuts prompted a shift in the trends. In Obama's case, perhaps his public works plans will do the trick.
-----Added 10/12/2008 at 04 : 42 : 43-----
I just took a look at Personal Income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $45.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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BEA : News Release: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2008
We were down -.8% in July but August, September and October were all up.