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Old 11-25-2008, 08:04 AM   #25 (permalink)
QuasiMondo
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Location: Pretoria (Tshwane), RSA
If the issues that plague the American auto industry were placed in a vacuum separate from everything else in our economic system, perhaps it would make sense to let them take a tumble. But having witnessed what our mortgage mess has done to the global financial market, I think it's foolish to adhere to this type of economic decoupling.

We assume that Chapter 11 is the way out of this mess. I don't see it. Sure it gives them the chance to shed dealers and rip up union contracts (assuming the UAW is just going to lie there and get kicked on), but if major lending institutions are unwilling to extend money to individuals with a decent credit history, what makes you think they'll extend it to a company under bankruptcy? Restructuring is necessary, but it'll be all for nothing if they can't make any money.

I'm loathe to make the UAW a scapegoat out of all of this. The UAW isn't the reason GM stuck with two vehicle platforms for over 20 years, both of them being vastly inferior to anything the competition, both domestic and otherwise offered. The UAW isn't the reason Mercedes-Benz fed Chrysler nothing but scraps from their engineering table, leaving them with two outdated platforms and a diesel engine that's not even available in the U.S. The UAW didn't go on a buying spree, buying up Jaguar, Aston-Martin, Land Rover, and Volvo instead of turning Lincoln and Mercury into marques that could compete with those companies. When sales of the Tahoe, Explorer, and Ram were generating hefty profits for these companies, nobody complained about UAW health care benefits and wages, so why should we complain about them now? It's fallacious to assume that Detroit can't compete with these unions holding them down, when their past performance has shown otherwise.

To turn things around, I think GM would need both the bailout AND a Chapter 11 filing. The bailout would give them the capital necessary to perform the aggressive restructuring the Chapter 11 filing would allow them to do. Buick would have to bow out of the U.S. market, but continue to operate in China where they are a very strong brand. Pontiac would have to be dropped. None of their vehicles are exclusive to their brand, and any performance vehicles they make can be sold by other marques. Hummer, as much as everybody hates them, is a strong competitor to Jeep. They can keep it, but don't expect to sell in huge numbers. GMC should focus exclusively on heavy-duty vehicles, so that means no Yukon or half-ton pickups.

Ford just needs a bailout. Alan Mulally has done a good job of turning that ship around, with plans on bringing many of their successful European models to the U.S., including the Fiesta and euro Focus. The only question is whether he can do it before the clock runs out, that bailout will give them a chance.

Chrysler needs real leadership, which they haven't had since they were decimated by the DCX merger. Cerberus has no interest in the carmaking business and only acquired them to turn a quick profit, which as backfired horribly on them. They need to be separated from Cerberus, and that needs to come before any discussion of a bailout can occur.

Of course, what I find most interesting in all of this bailout talk is the song and dance that the CEO's of all three companies had to go through just to walk out of DC empty handed, while the CEO of CitiGroup can just pick up the batphone to Henry Paulson and get a second bailout, along with another $800B he's throwing into banks to encourage lending. I suppose it's more important to keep people in debt than it is to keep them employed so they can pay off those debts.
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Last edited by QuasiMondo; 11-25-2008 at 02:28 PM..
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