djtestudo

The Whigs weren't a third party, though. They grew out of the remnants of the Federalist Party, and when it failed its remnants grew into the base for the Republican Party.

There are really two examples of third parties that have any success.

The one-issue parties like the nativist parties in the 1840s and 50s that ended up killing the Whigs, or the Dixiecrat/racist parties that sprouted between the late-40s and early-70s.

The charismatic leader parties, like the Bull Moose Party in 1912 (Teddy Roosevelt) or Reform Party in 1992 (Ross Perot).

For a party to either break into the two-party system or take over one of the spots would take a combination of a major issue that enough people care about, a leader that can inspire trust that they can fix the issue (and bring in plenty of either personal or public cash), and a major crisis that affects the nation and destroys the trust in the two main parties.

For example, in my Bloomberg scenario, the Democrats in power now make the financial crisis worse to the point of true depression, while the Republicans squabble among themselves for four years. Bloomberg keeps doing a good job in New York while keeping the city's finances healthy, and he goes into the next election able to say that he knows how to fix the economy.

There will still likely be hardcore Democracts who would follow Obama and Pelosi to the very end, and a splitting Republican party would likely have several candidates with loyal followings, but especially with the money available to him Bloomberg would be able to overwhelm the people with his message, and might be able to draw off enough support from all sides to at least make it a real race to the very end.

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