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David Frum, a pox on two nations.
That aside, i generally agree with him. If you look at the state races, McCain is toast. He has to win Pennsylvania and then every other toss-up state. That is extremely unlikely. The Pennsylvania strategy is a way of looking busy during garbage time. He's not even going to be at his election night rally.
Down ticket does indeed look bad for Republicans. They are behind in voter enthusiasm, volunteers, and fundraising. The Democrats estimate a 25 seat swing, while the Republican "death list" had 34 possible losses. I don't think Michelle Bachmann wasn't on that list, but she's now behind her opponent and cut off from national party support. So they lose 25-30 seats, if things are really bad, 35. Democratic turnout is going to be quite high thanks to Obama, and that's going to push some races their way.
I don't think it's quite that gloomy for the Republicans in the Senate. For one, what happens with Lieberman? He's been out campaigning for McCain. He seems to be headed to moving across the aisle if he's not kicked that way first. The Alaska race is tighter than it should be given Steven's legal troubles. I'm guessing there's going to be a mistrial, which might give him a bit of a break. Any of the candidates could win the 3-way race in Minnesota, though i'm thinking that Franken has the advantage. Dole is behind in NC, but it's conceivable that she could pull it out with more support. The Georgia candidates need to score a majority, so there could very well be a 2nd round. I think that would help Chambliss.
That said, given the absence of a unifying Republican ideology after neoliberalism's self-immolation, i wonder how strong an opposition they can be. "Tax & spend" doesn't scare anyone anymore. It's going to be easier for a Democratic majority to peel away votes simply because Republicans will be fighting amongst themselves. There is going to be a faction of the Republicans who will want to distance themselves from the people who ran the McCain campaign into the ground.
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