I am not concerned about some potential catastrophe to occur that would sway voters....that "October surprise" came early this year with the economic meltdown..and that did turn the tide of the election.
What I am most concerned about is frustration, anger, resentment reaching levels that could get ugly if voters feel that they are being disenfranchised.
By most projections, this election will have the highest voter turnout in years....approaching or exceeding 70% (which is extraordinary for the US...not so much in other countries) with millions of first time voters who dont know what to expect.
And despited claims to the contrary, it is the Republican strategy to suppress as many voters as they can, particularly minority voters. They have already played the ACORN card. They are playing the "if your house was foreclosed, you cant vote" card in several battle ground states, etc.
Next, they will have operatives all over the polls in swing states, looking over the shoulders of "selective" voters for the smallest ways to challenge a vote....things like challenging the right to vote if the voter registration ID does not "match" a state dvm list because the middle name was left out, and demanding that those voters use provisional ballots. Democratic operatives will be all over these polling places as well.
A key component of the Obama strategy is trying to get as many voters as they can to vote before Nov 4 where permitted....and it working at unprecedented levels which should help alleviate the Republican suppression tactics.
A story by RFK Jr. in Rolling Stone sums up the potential problems pretty well.
Block the Vote : Rolling Stone
Quote:
Since 2003, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, at least 2.7 million new voters have had their applications to register rejected. In addition, at least 1.6 million votes were never counted in the 2004 election — and the commission's own data suggests that the real number could be twice as high....
...In Florida, GOP officials created "match" rules that rejected more than 15,000 new registrants in 2006 and 2007...
...In 2004, election officials discarded at least 1 million votes nationwide after classifying them as "spoiled" because blank spaces, stray marks or tears made them indecipherable to voting machines. The losses hit hardest among minorities in low-income precincts, who are often forced to vote on antiquated machines....
...In 2004, an estimated 3 million voters who showed up at the polls were refused regular ballots because their registration was challenged on a technicality. Instead, these voters were handed "provisional" ballots, a fail-safe measure mandated by HAVA to enable officials to review disputed votes. But for many officials, resolving disputes means tossing ballots in the trash. In 2004, a third of all provisional ballots — as many as 1 million votes — were simply thrown away at the discretion of election officials.
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RFK Jr? Rolling Stone? Yeah, I can hear our republican tfp colleagues now.
