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Cynthetiq · 10-18-2008, 09:47 AM

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View: Buy American. I Am.
Source: Nytimes
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Buy American. I Am.
October 17, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

If I had the funds and fortitude to do so, I'd be buying some stocks now. The Oracle of Omaha has spoken and it makes complete and utter sense.

I unfortunatly don't have the funds at the moment, as I made my play earlier this year by buying a foreclosed house in a distressed market. I'm still not sure it was the right move to make, but having faith in the marketplace, it is going to recover. The only issue is that I have to keep covering the mortgage payments, where had I bought Ford shares at $2.50 last week with the same money, any movement would be a win and a finite outlay.

My 401k is maxed at the moment for contributions. It's the best time to do so as I'll be buying at the lowest levels in years so I'm getting the maximum of my contribution.

But Mr. Buffett's words are the way the I see the world, "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." I didn't go with the dot coms, nor the Enron, Tyco, Worldcom, etc. I didn't contribute to giving my money away to someone else. Sure, people supposedly made lots, but they also lost lots. I don't know many that cashed out and made a windfall from those stocks, save those that had options within the companies.

I just don't have the funds to do so, I'd like to, but I've got some other things happening like Skogafoss taking a package at work and will no longer be employed at the end of the year. I'd like to keep my cash savings available in case the economy stagnates further, and we need the access.

Are you going to take some savings and buy American?