Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post

Tully Mars · 10-17-2008, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

Fortunately, Ohio may not be as signficant as it was in 04....not that I wouldnt like to see him carry the state.

Assuming Obama holds all the blue states from 04 (and none are really in danger)....he only need to win Iowa (red in 04), which has been conceded to him, and only one of these scenarios:

...Virginia, where is up by 7%.
or
...Colorado and New Mexico, where he is up by 6% in both

or Colorado and Nevada

or
...Florida, where he is up by from 3-5%

or
... Missouri, where it is a toss up

or
...North Carolina, where he is inching ahead

Any one of those and Obama breaks the 270 electoral barrier. McCain really needs to win all these states....and red states like Indiana and West Virginia are still in play ...creating even more scenarios for an Obama electoral win.

Another reminder of why the national poll numbers are meaningless.
-----Added 17/10/2008 at 01 : 55 : 49-----
Here is this wildest scenario:

MCain pulls out all of the red states where he is trailing -CO, NC, and VA, toss up states -FL and OH, and those states where he is slightly ahead - IN, MO and WV

...and Obama wins NM and NV:

Electoral votes - 269-269

The best possible (but not likely) scenario for Obama: 380 electoral votes to McCain's 158...an overwhelming mandate that would change the political dynamics of the country...at least for the next four years.

A lot of these state polls have Obama up but not by that much. Many are within the margin of error. With nearly three weeks left I cringe every time I hear land side or see numbers like 380. Much of Obama's base is made up of the youth vote. The youth are notorious for not showing up. Through the primaries Obama was able to keep them fired up and showing up. If they think it's a land side they may think there's no need for them, personally, to trudge through the snow and rain or stand in line. I don't think the planets would need to line up in any particular order for us to be seeing McCain take the oath in Jan. Then we're just one heart beat away from President Palin and the first dude.