I don't think all-out nuclear war is likely. Besides us, only Russia and China have enough weapons to do apocalyptic damage to the United States. And since our economies are so interlinked, it would be economic suicide to do so. Smaller nuclear powers could do huge damage to us, of course, but not apocalyptic (depends on how you define it, I guess). Destroying New York, for example, would be a huge hit, but not one big enough to end the existence of the country, in my opinion. I would fear a nuke on New York City, since I'm in the refugee path, but I feel that there would be an ultimate recovery, and the military would still exist.
An EMP weapon or two could be a major blow, possibly life-threatening to the country. But again, there aren't that many powers with the tech to do it and the independence from us to survive it.
I personally think a pandemic or a global economic collapse is a more likely scenario. In either case, the basic effect on the population would be, at first, loss of utilities, lack of food shipments, loss of communications and limits on travel (no gas or public transportation). I imagine myself, in my little Upstate community, with no water, electricity, gas/oil for heat, or phone/internet. I see all three gas stations closed, and both grocery stores empty. In a few days, I picture several million of my closest friends from New York City headed my way, once they clean out their stores, etc.
So, here are a couple things that I've studied a little bit about:
1. How do you organize a small community and defend it against refugees?
2. How do you make a steam engine or convert a gas engine to steam? How do you make a boiler?
3. How do you purify stream/well/lake water? How do you dig a well?
4. How do you butcher an animal efficiently?
5. How do you grow high-food-value crops like corn and wheat? And hay?
6. How do you make gunpowder, reload cartridges with it, and scavenge lead?
In other words, how do you learn to be a farmer/rancher as might be found on the American frontier in the 1800's?
That's a great book, Popinjay. Also, The Stand and Lucifer's Hammer.
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