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Originally Posted by guyy
To what degree racism will affect polling data and the election is an interesting question. I'm thinking that it will, but not to the same degree as before. Ann Selzer, who was the only pollster to get the Iowa caucuses right, has said that a certain degree of Obama support generally goes under the radar due to his support among young people/first time voters. According to Selzer, this support goes unregistered because it is harder to reach via the usual polling method, i.e., calling a land line.
Obama's Senate race did not test the race issue, but he had surprisingly wide support from conservatives and Christians. Kerry won a few counties -- Cook, Rock Island, Jackson (E. St. Louis), Alexander (Cairo), Champaign (barely), and around Quad Cities & Galesburg. In contrast, Obama did very well all over the state, including the suburbs of Chicago and downstate. I don't think it was just because he was running against Keyes. He probably would have beaten Ryan as well, even without the pervy divorce papers. (I think he was up 22% on Ryan when the race started.)
So, the pattern of support for Obama is different than Jesse Jackson's or Bradley's -- or Kerry's for that matter. He does get votes from cities & industrial workers, but that's not really his base.
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Interesting, hope you're right. I'm concerned. I spent most of my adult life living in rural Oregon. I worked out of the courthouse in two small county's. I remember in 1986 they tore down city hall and moved the offices into a remodeled courthouse. In both buildings they found KKK clothing and assorted items. People weren't shocked, in fact many found it funny and took them home as keep sakes. When Thomas was confirmed to the SCOTUS my neighbor, an honest to God WWII war hero, stood on his front porch and screamed to my other neighbor "I can't believe they put that nigger on the Supreme Court, the worlds gone to hell now!" For brief time after leaving my state job I drove truck, mainly because I had time and CDL. It was a part time, well paying, gig driving live crab from the Oregon coast to the San Fransisco bay area. The guy I drove truck for was a decent enough guy, hardest working 68yr I ever met. One day I went by their house to pick up my paycheck. They'd just come back from Vegas. I asked his wife how the trip went. She went on to explain they had to check out of the first casino because her husband went down to the lobby to buy a USA Today early the first morning and saw a group of black guys hanging out. I asked her if the new casino had black people staying there as well. "Yeah, but not as many."
Oregon's a pretty blue state and this isn't the norm esp. in the larger cities and college towns. But in rural Oregon it most certainly can be an issue. I remember seeing a piece on the Daily Show asking people in West Virginia why they didn't vote for Obama their answers were exactly what I would have expected from some of my old neighbors and co-workers.
There's a whole lot of rural out there in the US. In some key states these types of attitudes could make the difference.