|
I've said for month that I'm not going to trust the polls reliability until October. And even then, they're going to be shaky. One problem? They tend not to hit people without land lines, who are disproportionately young people. And young people disproportionately support Obama. Another is that current polls over-emphasize the effect of recent events. I think you can see this in McCain's polls numbers. They got a bump because of the Republican convention and the selection of a young, attractive, female V-P. As the novelty of these two events wears off, people are moving more towards where they were before the conventions. I think we are only starting to see what the real effect of Sarah Palin is going to be at the polls in November (which are, after all, the only ones that matter). Another problem is that it can be hard to accurate predict who is going to vote. So I wouldn't pay too much attention to polls if I were you.
__________________
"Die Deutschen meinen, daß die Kraft sich in Härte und Grausamkeit offenbaren müsse, sie unterwerfen sich dann gerne und mit Bewunderung:[...]. Daß es Kraft giebt in der Milde und Stille, das glauben sie nicht leicht."
"The Germans believe that power must reveal itself in hardness and cruelty and then submit themselves gladly and with admiration[...]. They do not believe readily that there is power in meekness and calm."
-- Friedrich Nietzsche
|