ottopilot

Ummm...yes, it was in the works, but the push to close the agreement came immediately after Russia invaded Georgia.
-----Added 27/8/2008 at 09 : 59 : 37-----
I don't accept your premise... your scenario doesn't even closely parallel the events in question.

The invasion appears to be a pre-planned and coordinated invasion of Georgia by the Russian Federation.

Events leading up to the invasion:

• In early 2006, Russia began deporting thousands of Georgians due to "passport violations".
• In April 2007, a village in Georgia-controlled Abhkazia was attacked by 3 Russian helicopters.
• In August 2007, 2 Russian fighter jets penetrated Georgian airspace and fired a missile onto a village, the missile did not explode... a missile designed to deliver nuclear warheads. A subtle reminder to Georgia regarding who's really in charge?
• In September 2007, at an informal gathering, the Russian Ambassador to Georgia was recorded as saying: the Georgian people are a "dying-out nation". He went on to say, "Russia is a large country, a huge country. It can digest this. You, the Georgians, will fail to digest this".
• On April 20, 2008, a Georgian unmanned unarmed aerial vehicle (UAV) was shot down over the Abkhazian conflict zone. While Abkhazian separatists initially claimed responsibility, the Georgian authorities released the video that the UAV had been filming up to its downing. The video showed a Russian MiG-29 shooting down the UAV. This triggered harsh condemnation by the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany.
• On April 28, 2008, Russia announced its buildup of its forces, or "peacekeepers" as it calls them, in Abkhazia.
• After intense fighting on August 1, 2008, the Russians unilaterally sent in 5 batallions of the Russian 58th Army on the border of South Ossetia. The successive events could easily be described as a full-fledged Russian invasion of Georgia.

BTW - The inhabitants of South Ossetia were only very recently offered Russian passports, which they were "encouraged" to accept. This is where Russia claims it is simply defending "its people".

So why did Russia invade Georgia?
It was a shakedown... and a lesson needed to be taught to the upstarts in Georgia to set an example to the other old Soviet-satellite states.

• After the Rose Revolution, Mikhail Saakashvili was democratically elected by the Georgian people... they're becoming more economically prosperous, police corruption was aggressively rehabilitated, citizens are enjoying democratic freedoms, and Georgia is becoming more friendly with the United States... one of Russia's greatest enemies? At least that's what the Russian government is selling to its people.
• Georgia is seeking to join NATO. This is also at the core of the dispute. Russia must maintain control in the region! Despite Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov's assessment that "Georgia is a well-known American satellite", it has actually been a Russian satellite for most of its existence (and still largely controlled by the Russians).
• Russia realizes that it can get away with almost anything in the region... especially with weakened U.S. resolve, not willing to intervene.
• Georgia has some really great resources that are appealing to Putin, such as a major oil pipeline in competition with Russia's oil distribution and some nice strategic port cities (just to mention a few).

The other satellite nations, AKA the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), are watching this very carefully. If Georgia falls and Russia wins, then (perhaps) there goes all chances of democracy in Eastern Europe... a glaring incentive for the old Russian satellites to take protective measures, like say... Poland and Czechoslovakia signing pacts and installing defensive arms?
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