Thread: on russia
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Old 08-27-2008, 04:18 PM   #15 (permalink)
The_Dunedan
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Quote:
They saw what Russia did to Georgia and signed the dotted line as fast they could. The Czechs aren't far behind.
Umm...no.

This deal has been in the works for some time. It's WILDLY unpopular in Poland and the Czech Republic, with the CR in particular being 65-90% opposed, with 80% opposed being the most reliable and frequently-quoted number. Various political and financial powerhouses (especially the Schwartzenberg family) within these two countries are after the deal for economic reasons, but the missile-defense system is extremely unpopular with the populace. They're a whole lot more worried about what Russia will do if the system -is- emplaced (turn off the gas in January, nuke Mlada Boleslav, or simply invade) than what Russia might do if the system stays a pipe-dream. They've dealt with Russians before, they don't wish to do so again, and they're well aware that the U.S. and NATO will be perfectly happy to let them twist in the radioactive wind. They don't trust NATO to do anything, but they damned sure trust Russia to back up their threats. Putin cut Russia's oil exports by 8% for one week back in Feb. of 07, and gasoline prices in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia shot up 15% overnight. Imagine if Russia turned off the tap altogether...in January. Living in Prague in January with no heating oil would -not- be pleasant, and most of central and eastern Europe has noplace else to -get- oil: what we aren't using, the Chinese are. These folks reap -zero- benefit from this system while becoming targets for a nuclear-armed superpower with an historically short temper and severe target-discrimination issues, and they know all this.


Russia's objections are multivalate:

1: NATO is breaking its' commitment not to expand. Not only has NATO expanded, it's expanded into the former Warsaw Pact.

2: Such a missile-defense system destroys nuclear parity, invalidates MAD, and radically and dangerously changes the nuclear worldwide balance of power.

3: The U.S. was offered the joint use of an Azeri radar station and airbase to house the system, with dual oversight and data-sharing with Russia. The Azeri station would have been in a better position to monitor Iran in any case, but the U.S. said no. This in particular is seen by Russia as a deliberate snub an a not-so-thinly-veiled threat in their direction.

4: These allegedly unarmed missiles could easily be replaced with medium-range ballistic missiles which would then be in ideal firing position against Russia.


For once, I find myself in full agreement with roachboy. A confederacy of nuclear dunces indeed.
The_Dunedan is offline  
 

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