Quote:
Originally Posted by dlish
one thing to remember is that if israel attacks first, the entire mid east will see it as the aggressor and the entire mid east would turn on it, leaving israel isolated in the region.
if usa did the dirty work, then the mid east would be disturbed but ok.
same result different outcome.
strange world we live in
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Interesting insight D. But I don't think the US can "get away" with that type of action either. We've already splashed fuel on the fire over there.
Israel is already isolated pretty much in the region. Its only "allies" Egypt. Jordan are pretty cold. The only thing I can go on is past behaviour: Osirak, Iraq and Syria. Both actions, did not result in much more than diplomatic grumbling. But who knows, maybe the USA did some damage control behind the scenes. Though this could be the tipping point.
I think to be successful, there would have to be clear threats and media play involved. In my opinion, the following condition would be required.
1. It is clearly evident that Iran has a serious nuclear weapons program that is near the "beyond the threshold" point.
2. Diplomacy has failed.
3. Iran is belligerent and making threats, especially to "drive Israel into the sea"; sabre rattling and making its neighbors nervous (Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc).
4. Israel (with US help) conducts a covert operation with minimal hype and minimal collateral damage.